Misconceptions of Probability Among Future Mathematics Teachers

Consider a coin toss, many would guess that the§probability of 2 or §more heads in 3 tosses is the same as the probability§of 200 or §more heads in 300 tosses, the proportion of heads§being the same. §Actually, the probability of 2 or more heads in 3§tosses is 0.5 and §the probability of 200 or more heads in 300 tosses is§only about §0.000000004. Many probability concepts are similarly §counterintuitive. This work examines the historical§evolution of the §concept of probability and considers certain§influences and notions §that could interfere with understanding it. It also§tests the concept §of probability and the incidence of misconceptions of§probability §among students (n=66) at a graduate school of§education in order §to assess teachers understanding of the subject. This §understanding is clearly necessary to effectively§teach probability. §Study participants demonstrated basic knowledge of §probability but were less successful at more§complicated problems §and exhibited many misconceptions. Participants who§had reported §higher levels of formal probability preparation§tended to perform §better, suggesting that more education may help. Gender §differences were also observed.