Missions of the United States Air Force in the 22nd Century

One hundred years ago, the Aeronautical Division of the US Army Signal Corps consisted of three Airmen, one dirigible, one airplane, and performed only one mission. Today, the USAF consists of over 300,000 Airman, 3000 aircraft and performs 17 distinct missions. The USAF in the 22nd century will quite possibly be as radically different as the Aeronautical Division is from the Air Force of today. Using the modern techniques such as a Delphi Poll, State of Future Index, Scenarios and Trend Impact Analysis, it will possible to identify trends that will shape the missions of the USAF 100 years from now. In this paper examines the USAF in three different future scenarios in the 22nd century. The worst case scenario is a heavily resource-constrained future where nation-state and non-nation-state conflict is commonplace. The best case scenario is a technologically advanced future in which nation-state conflict is relatively rare and most societal ills have been addressed. The most likely case is a technologically advanced future which retains significant societal ills and nation-state and non-nation state conflict remains a significant threat. The conclusions of this paper are intended to provoke thoughts and ideas about the long-term health and direction of the USAF.