Methodology for Predicting Ammunition Requirements as a Function of Force Size

Fundamental to military planning is accurate prediction of ammunition requirements to support combat operations. Although this is a recognized fact, it is an area of planning with many uncertainties, misconceptions, and a widespread lack of understanding. In dealing with this general problem, this thesis addresses the more specific problem of the relationship of ammunition requirements as a function of the size of the force under consideration. A methodology which relates ammunition requirements to the size of the force in terms of the number of weapons of a given type in the force is proposed. A modification of the Delphi method is applied to determine the validity of the results of the application of the methodology. The research effort does not attempt to validate or refute ammunition consumption rates contained in current Department of the Army documents which contain ammunition consumption rates for planning purposes such as FM 101-10-1 and SB 38-26. The research assumes the validity of the given rates and uses these rates as the limiting values of the methodology. The author concludes that the intended purpose of the research has been accomplished and the methodology does provide useful data for predicting ammunition requirements as a function of force size.